Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
